Economic Predictions for 2014

The economy has been the subject of much debate in the past half decade. The recent financial collapse in almost all markets and industries caused massive amounts of panic. Consumers locked their money away, and politicians tried desperately to find solutions.

In all reality, that collapse was simply a part of our capitalistic system. Sometimes things have to go bad before they can get better. And in no case is this true than with our economy. A collapse like that clears out the riff raff, and sets the ship straight. While many suffered through hard times after 2008, things are on the upswing.

So I thought I would throw together a list of my own economic predictions for 2014. But first, a should be obvious disclaimer: While I am a small business owner and economics student, I am no expert on the subject. This post is purely my own opinions on what is going to happen and should be treated as thus.

Employment

The employment level has stayed relatively high over the past five years. In fact, it has hardly moved at all. I think that this will continue to be the case. I don’t see us reaching full employment in 2014, it is simply too far away at this point and the focal point of our economy is no longer on achieving full employment.

With that said, I think that we will continue to see it decline slowly. This is obviously a positive trend that we’ve seen, and I think that it will continue in that way. This is in part because of the number of people who have been starting businesses, which I think is just an awesome thing overall.

Housing Market

The housing market collapse was inevitable with how high prices had gotten. And while prices stayed very low for a long time there, they’ve recently been making a comeback. I don’t think we’ll ever see 2007 levels again (for the sake of our economy I sure hope we don’t), but I do think that a steady growth in the real estate market will be seen this year. Nothing crazy, but substantial none the less. Hopefully it will be enough to get some of those struggling on their underwater mortgages out of trouble.

Interest Rates

Interest rates have been absurdly low for years now. While they won’t be shooting up anytime soon, I do think that we are unfortunately going to see a small increase coming up soon. We’ll first see a rise in the long term loan rates. Slowly, but surely they will rise. We may not quite yet see a rise in short term loan interest rates, but it come quickly in 2015.

Stock Market

The stock market has been on an absolute tear recently. In fact, as of this writing (September 2013) the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 15% year to date. That is pretty fantastic for a stock market gain this year.

I expect that in 2014 we will see more of the same. It may not be quite as high of growth, but it will no doubt be growth. Slow and steady wins the race, and write now the stock market is winning big.

So those are my economic predictions for the year 2014. Do you have any that you’d like to add and/or want to comment? Send me an email and we can talk about it!